Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is set to step down from power October 1, 2024, following June 2nd Presidential elections, likely handing the reigns to a successor from the Morena Party that he founded in 2011. At the same time Mexico will elect Governors for Mexico City, Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Yucatan; 500 Federal Deputies and 128 Senators and 30 of the 32 local Congresses.
As leader of the “Fourth Transformation” (4T) political movement and the country’s most popular (and polarizing) politician, AMLO’s influence over the next 18 months will be fundamental. He will likely handpick Morena’s Presidential candidate, and indeed most of the other key Morena electoral candidates. He will use his mighty Presidential power to promote their chances of winning these elections. At the same time, defying normal lame-duck status of an exiting President, he will push for the completion of his pet 4T projects (Train Maya, Dos Bocas Refinery), seek to take further control of independent agencies and institutions (especially the Courts and INE), aim to overcome judicial obstacles to already approved legislation (INE, Energy...), and most probably obtain Congressional approval for some remaining pro 4T legislation (Mining, Infrastructure Concessions, Cabotage).
Meanwhile, US-Mexico trade, investment and diplomatic relations are at a critical juncture. On the one hand, Mexico is benefiting from an overhaul of global supply chains that favor nearshoring and investment in Mexico from companies seeking to access the US market. This, alongside conservative fiscal and monetary policies, have helped the Mexican Peso to be among the strongest currencies in the world in the five years of AMLO’s Presidency. On the other hand, Mexico faces various investigations into its nationalist energy and agriculture policies that could yet lead to USMCA panels and sanctions. And undocumented migration from Central and South Americans into the USA from Mexico is at record highs, while the illegal drug trade, and associated violence, continues unabated. So far, the US government seems loathe to pick a fight with the Mexican government but as USA Presidential elections in 2024 also approach, the risk of deterioration in the bilateral relationship is rising.
Legislation
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Miranda Intelligence Newsletters to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.